Chapter 97: Cult Wine (3)
TL: Hanguk
It certainly made sense, but that didn't mean Frederick could just blindly jump on board.
"There's bound to be a price gap, though... Could we even get it at a comparable price?"
"I actually asked an agricultural land broker on my way over here."
"Did you? You really do come prepared."
"If the price itself doesn't work out, I can't very well suggest it to you, can I. Anyway, from what they told me, walnuts are already such a common crop in California that they actually trade pretty actively. Apparently 100 acres go for somewhere between 2.3 and 2.7 million dollars."
"Hmm... that's not far off from what I figured. And almonds?"
"Almonds aren't quite as widespread as walnuts, but they're still a crop with a well-established market in California, so you can pick up as much as you want. The price might run a bit higher than walnuts, but if you're after something cheaper, they can show you farms with aging trees or ones at the generational transition stage. In that case, it could come down to between 2 and 2.5 million dollars. For land meant for entirely new plantings, 100 acres can be had for around 1.5 million."
"And what do you think?"
"If it were me, I'd look for a farm that's ready to harvest right away, but I can only say that because it's me."
When I said this with a slightly sheepish expression, Frederick gave a wry smile.
"Right, of course you would."
I'd said it because I was confident I could find the optimal methods to maintain yield and quality even after taking over the farm, and Frederick understood that immediately. On the flip side, if Brandon took over a farm, could he maintain the yield and quality without a single misstep?
I couldn't say for certain. No, the odds were far higher that he couldn't.
"So you're saying Brandon would be better off buying aging trees or a farm at the generational transition stage?"
"Walnut farming and almond farming may both be nuts, but the methods are very different. It's not easy."
When I said it wasn't easy with a firm expression, Frederick's face darkened too.
"I've never farmed almonds myself either, so I don't really know. Is it that tough?"
"Hmm... if walnut farming is a kind of management-style farming, then almonds have to be considered corporate-style farming."
"What do you mean by that?"
"Walnut trees fundamentally have deep, strong roots, so they absorb water well. They also need a lot of water, but the upside is that the demand is consistent, with a clear pattern."
In short, once the existing patterns were learned, the difficulty of the farming wasn't all that high. Of course, that didn't mean farming was easy, by any means. Brandon ruining an entire year's harvest to pests was a prime example.
Even so, compared to almonds, walnuts really were relatively simple.
"And almonds, the 'corporate-style' ones?"
"The roots themselves are shallow and delicate. So they're sensitive to moisture fluctuations, which means water is required intensively during the bloom and flower-set stages. Walnuts are relatively insensitive to water stress, but almonds are different. If you mismanage the watering even slightly, the flowers and fruit drop off immediately."
"Ah... a finicky one."
"Right. That's why a clear process and crisis-response capability, like running a corporation, are essential."
"So you need years of experience?"
"Experience and knowledge."
"Hmm..."
Frederick crossed his arms and nodded at the difficulty of the farming.
"And what else?"
"The pollination mechanism is different too. With walnuts, pollination happens through wind, so there's not much to think about on that front. But almonds have to be pollinated by bees, so if bee activity slows down, flowering fails. There's a lot you have to know."
"Brandon's going to be worked into the ground."
"Heh, right. He's in for a rough time."
"But there are upsides too, you said?"
"Of course. Walnuts have a high fat content, so there's a rancidity risk if they sit too long, which is why they're mostly consumed domestically in reality. On top of that, they're centered on bread and dessert ingredients, with heavy dependence on processing. But almonds can clearly hold an advantage in the export market."
Frederick, for whom this wasn't unfamiliar territory, frowned slightly as he spoke.
"Yeah, I've heard almonds get exported a lot."
"Almond exports will only grow more and more going forward. So compared to walnuts, which are consumed strictly domestically, the price bracket is going to climb much higher."
In fact, before the regression, walnut prices had shown a 4 to 5% average annual growth rate over ten years, while almonds had hit 12 to 15%. The reason I knew almonds in such detail was that, before the regression, I'd conducted research at Cornell University on the growth of almond exports.
On top of that, almonds were a core ingredient in the global plant-based protein and alternative-food markets, branching out in all directions through almond milk, almond butter, and more. Put simply, even before the regression, walnuts had remained an agricultural product while almonds had become an industry.
The market potential itself was on a different scale.
"Then why did you bring up blueberries?"
At this point, he seemed curious about why I'd put blueberries on the table in the first place. But no matter how well I explained it, I didn't think he'd pick blueberries. There were still only a handful of proper farms for them in California, so the unfamiliarity would make it hard for him to commit.
"I think they're extremely promising, just as much as almonds. But if it's one or the other, you'd pick almonds, wouldn't you?"
"Hmm... probably?"
"Then well..."
When I took the attitude that there was no need to belabor it, Frederick didn't ask anything more about blueberries.
"If you weren't growing grapes, would almonds be worth choosing?"
"Of course. Without question."
Almond cultivation alone? I'd build a processing plant for them as well.
"So replacing a farm of the same size isn't a bad choice, and going with one at the generational transition stage, so he can rack up experience and learn slowly, would be the better path?"
"Right. That way he'll bring in income and gain experience at the same time."
"And we form a partnership again this time?"
"You can if you'd like, or not. It's entirely up to you."
I'd already formed a strategic partnership with Frederick, which had opened up substantial room for profit on the cherry side alone. So I'd left it all to Frederick's call, but he apparently didn't fully trust his son.
"I'd like to. I felt it again with that walnut business before. If it had been the cherry farm, something like that wouldn't have happened, right?"
"Probably not, yeah?"
For cherry farming, I dropped by often to check on the state of things and point out what was lacking. It was that experience that had let Chloe so easily launch into Niitaka pears. If a problem came up, I'd help, and they knew I'd keep advising them to head off problems before they ever arose.
Walnut farming hadn't been like that, which was why my visit when the trouble had hit had been my very first time setting foot on the walnut farm.
"I'd like the same terms as before."
"That's not bad for me, but I don't know if Brandon will go for it."
"He'll go for it. He's different from before. He actually seems serious about farming now."
"If that's the case... alright, understood. Almonds are in the fruit-set stage right now, so harvest is in full swing. No one's going to sell a farm before the harvest is done, so signing a contract around September should work out."
"Good. Let's do that."
Frederick nodded. As I started to rise, my advice all wrapped up, he asked me one more thing.
"Ah, by the way..."
"Yes?"
"If it's that promising, wouldn't it be fine to go bigger than 100 acres right from the start?"
Looking at him now, it seemed Frederick hadn't been making such bold, decisive moves up to this point purely on trust in me. Maybe he was just born with a taste for gambling kinds of bets.
Personally, if I had the money, I'd be snapping up land thinking even 1,000 acres was too little, never mind 100. But Frederick hadn't glimpsed the future, and he was still ready to throw his assets in.
"I do have certainty about it, but you really don't need to push that far..."
"We've been farming cherries in Brentwood for over 30 years now. How much do you think we've made in all that time?"
"......"
"I've raised the kids, and I figured I'd just keep getting older until that was the end of it. But thinking about starting a brand-new crop at this age, it's exciting, you know?"
"You're still young at heart."
"Hahaha! Am I now? Hmm... I suppose I am. I thought my passion had faded, but I think it was just that I'd grown too used to the same old farming. It's a thrill, like meeting a new lover. So this is why people have affairs, huh?"
"So you're not going to leave it all to Brandon?"
"Up till now I've only checked in on the cherries here and there and put my real attention on the olives, but I'm going to change my thinking. I'll give Brandon a share equivalent to the existing walnut farm. The rest I'll start under my own share. Oh, and I'll cut you in for 30% on top of that. How does that sound?"
The size had grown much larger than I'd originally pictured.
"I have no reason to object."
"Good! Then once I find a suitable farm I'll let you know. We'll get the contract ready, set a date, and sign."
"Understood."
Frederick wrapped things up, buoyed by his anticipation for the future. He was lucky he had me; if a con artist had gotten hold of him, he might well have been taken for a brutal ride. Of course, the fact that the business itself was farming was why he could trust it and dive in; if it had been a completely different industry, he wouldn't have been swayed so easily.
Time flowed swiftly after that, and we slid into September, the grape harvest season. Cabernet Sauvignon harvest ran from early October to mid-October at the latest. So I was in the thick of pushing the SWP readings high to apply water stress, which made it an extremely tense stretch for me.
Frederick, who had already established a business called Solaris Nut Company back in August and signed a contract with me, had acquired a farm called Sierra Bloom Farms located in Fresno County, in the Central Valley.
Of course, since we had a formal working agreement in place, I'd personally visited every one of the candidate farms, and Sierra Bloom Farms, the one purchased this time, was one I'd recommended.
I'd secured a stake in yet another business this way, but I wasn't paying it much mind. He was probably riding high on expectation about now, but I planned to start teaching him about almond farming only little by little, once the harvest was completely over.
So was I focused solely on grape cultivation, then? No. I was making my first visit since the regression to what could honestly be called a major city: LA.
Specifically, the headquarters of White & Company Wine Trading.
"Welcome. We're delighted to have you both."
Greeted by Christopher's welcome, Dad and I stepped into the office and waited for the day's briefing while sipping the juice the staff had brought us.
Folders were laid out neatly across the long conference table, and on the wall the title 'Sylphide / 2006 Distribution Plan' was projected by a beam projector.
"It's been a while. Thank you sincerely for coming in person. We'll now begin our briefing on the Sylphide distribution strategy."
His smile carried that characteristic confidence. Today's visit had come about because Christopher had proposed that he wanted to walk us through the Sylphide branding and distribution strategy going forward.
"For this spring season, we'll be allocating Sylphide to 30 high-end restaurants centered on New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C. They're spots writers from 'Wine Enthusiast' and 'Food & Wine' frequent. We'll let exposure happen naturally there, and as you've probably guessed, the goal isn't sales. It's controlling the speed at which the reputation spreads."
"Oh, that does make sense."
Dad, who'd run businesses of his own, nodded with a satisfied smile.
"The second phase is a summer-limited Private Allocation. From July through August, emails and printed catalogs have already gone out to existing accounts and VIP customers. By giving priority sales through this catalog to consumers who pre-ordered, we're positioning Sylphide as 'the wine you can't get.' At least 150 dollars per bottle, no discounts. The more we restrict the supply, the more the value climbs."
With the wholesale price at 70 dollars, a distributor selling it for 150 was perfectly reasonable.
"And that...?"
A photo of a charity event venue appeared on the screen. Wine bottles were arrayed across white tablecloths.
"The final phase is a year-end charity auction. We'll be holding the 'Legacy Auction' together with the New York Lobbyists' Alliance. If I may, I have one favor to ask. We'll need a direct, personal signature from the winemaker behind Sylphide."
"A signature?"
"Yes. We want to make sure Sylphide stays there not as some up-and-coming wine, but as a collectible. We anticipate the auction price will be at least 1,200 dollars per case, minimum. Per bottle, that comes out to over 200 dollars."
I'd been quietly preparing to make a cult-level wine in my own way, so having Redwood Winery's wine featured at a venue like this wasn't a bad thing at all. So the intent was good, but...
"Well, since it's a limited edition, I'll throw in some barrels I've put a little extra care into on top of the signatures. So how many signatures are we talking...?"
"We'll need at least 50 cases."
Fifty cases... that meant 600 signatures.
I glanced over at Dad.
"Whew... alright. Dad'll handle it."
Dad, with a worried look on his face, began loosening his wrist.
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